Happily Independent or Independently Happy ?

As the car came to a steady halt just as the signal turned red, I peeked out of the window. Independence Day was fast approaching and as usual there was this “something special so to say” feeling in the air. To say the least, what I saw completely astounded me.  A street kid was running haplessly from car to car, trying to sell the Independence day flags. He wore a deserted look and seemed as if he had not seen water for many days. The streets of Mumbai greet you with many such faces. We all know it is a huge trafficking racket that’s at play but no one has yet bothered to look into it. Begging has become a multi crore industry. Whatever it be, it is that child’s life that’s at stake. As I shifted my attention to a huge hoarding on the other side of the road, I glanced upon some political statements. The banner read that the Government is responsible for the price rise. I pitied myself for the ignorance our politicians oozed. Certainly the government is not responsible for deficient monsoon. I agree that it can definitely control illegal stocking of food but certainly not be willing to raise the price of dal to Rs 100 per kg. 62 years after Independence this is what greets me. Way to Go !! We still haven’t matured enough to look beyond our petty issues and think of the well being of our nation as a whole. Things are certainly improving but the growth would be accelerated if the people who have public’s faith , speak the right language. To me, I always believe in what Gandhiji said, “ Be the change you wish to See”. There cannot be a better situation to apply this. The signal has just turned green and my journey continues.

Thought- Less Thought Over

It has been quite some days now, in fact weeks. I am yet to grope with the stark reality that my life as of today is without any purpose. I am shockingly surprised but equally astonished to never have this thought run through my benumbed mind even once. It finally took me a couple of books and quite some introspection to realize the gravity of the problem. If I would be asked this question as to what would I be doing 10 years down the line, I would not have any clear answer. Nor do I know why I am doing what I am doing. It hardly takes some time to realize that I have no clear-cut purpose chalked out.

But isn’t it the way most of us live? I mean who bothers about all these supposedly pseudo spiritual stuff. But then, I guess, it is better to have some sense extracted out of life rather than living in our own microcosm. For the next few days, maybe weeks or months, I would be pre occupied with this thought. For I know, it is something that I need an answer to. 

Pre Budget Blues

Well. the Union Budget is just a few hours away and the blues have already started setting in. Maybe there is a plethora of expectations that is causing unnecessary fluctuations in the anxiety. Here’s my budget wish list.

• The Direct Tax rate should be left untouched and the tax exemption limit under section 80c should be increased.

This would put more money in the pockets of people and thus spending would increase. This would also lead to an increase in demand that would indirectly start reviving certain sectors such as FMCG. I do not foresee a tremendous rise in the demand for housing merely on the basis of increase in exemption.

• Indirect Taxes such as FBT should be removed completely and taxes such as STT should be reduced.

I say FBT should be removed is because this forms quite a substantial chunk of the income of middle class in the private sector. Quite an important part of the salary these days is constituted by FBT and hence should be removed. This would again help revive demand. I still say STT should not be removed completely is because the profits made through markets earn enough to justify at least some tax. I agree that this might affect the volume of transactions but given that the profits that is earned, a lower STT would do a world of good. Goods and Service Tax should be introduced as soon as possible to reduce the existing complexity in the tax structure and to ensure proper and smoother tax implementation.

• Increased spending in Infrastructure and Transport

The percentage of GDP spent on these sectors should be increased substantially. This would be one of the main driving factors of the economy in the years to come. There are existing projects such as The Golden Quad project that needs to be accelerated. Every km of road built in rural areas brings with it increased accessibility, shorter routes, shorter routes, better employment and new investments.

• No Increase in existing public spending plans other than increase in the Rural, Health and Education sector.

These are the main drivers of a demographically rich country such as ours. We need to have better density of well equipped hospitals and capable doctors. We also need to have more institutions of higher and quality educations and should encourage good foreign universities to set up international campuses in India. This would help prevent brain drain.

• Increased spending in Defense as perceived appropriate.

There should be increase in spending in this sector on a need basis. The emphasis should be primarily on indigenous development and research.

• Ways to earn revenues and cut deficits

This is the major concern plaguing the economy currently. To plug this gap, I believe rather than increasing the cess or other taxes, the leaks in the system should be plugged. All the benefits do not trickle down the the needy in public programmes such as NREGA and others. If everyone at every stage is held accountable to whatever he or she does and if it is ensured that benefits are made available to the needy then these programmes shall be much more effective and this shall showing up as improvements in the other sectors of the economy. This albeit an indirect way to plug the double digit deficit, is much more efficient than raising any of the direct or indirect taxes.

Waiting for the Bday tomorrow !!

Why create fuss about the sub zero inflation

It has certainly made an impact amongst the minds of young Indians, not to mention the hype and the hooplah that it is getting in some of those weird news channels. Yes, the inflation is sub zero. Is it time to prepare for the doom? My relative innocuous conscience tells me that it is nothing to worry about. We are indeed sub zero but it is nowhere near to be termed as deflation. We should be happy to be sticking our neck out around the term Negative Inflation. The primary reason being, we are not yet witnessing any drop in demand and that is not going to happen anytime soon. So, deflation is ruled out. The second reason being, the WPI calculated YOY has a significant base effect. The crude that was around 130 $ last year, is around   70 $ today. To top it, we have seen a price decline most other goods, at least in the Wholesale markets. The monsoon has started playing truant and if it does not make its appearance then we shall certainly have a drop in food grain production that would lead to a surge in inflation again. For all I know, the CPI is still around a comfortable 9 percent. That makes the case in point.

Technorati Tags: Negative Inflation,WPI,CPI,Growth,Monsoon

Negative Innovation

The most beautiful thing about Sunday mornings is that they allow you to spend an extra hour or so on the bed, cozying up to the warm feeling of not having to rush to office. As usual, I woke up around 8 and took me sometime to get back to my usual self. It seems that the sleep had got better of me. But a cup of harmless platonic tea did the trick for me. As I glanced over the paper, this thought crossed over my mind. A few weeks earlier some of my colleagues in office went gung ho over a video that showcased an fingertip based web interface. It surely was a great technological innovation I felt but what disappointed me was the thought that, “ After all how many poor or underprivileged lives would this innovation help benefit?”. None, was the answer. Why do then people go crazy over such innovations? Well, as I was jostled back to reality, I decided to coin a new pseudonym for such inventions. I decided to call them “Negative Innovations”. Innovation for me is something that would help the larger mankind, something that would bring bring smiles to more faces, better more lives at the same cost. Micro Financing to me is one of the best innovations to have occurred to a country like India. We need more of such innovations. Designing an android to clean our house or designing a technology that helps use surfaces as touch screens is not the need of the hour for us. Till the day comes when our population is better served, can afford good food for three times a day and can avail of good education and housing, I would unwillingly have to call some of the innovations as Negative Innovations.

Random Musings

I am penning down a post after an eon. Not that I didn’t want to but just that my fickle self didn’t find me enough motivation to write one. Finally, the jinx was broken. In a short burst of 20 minutes, I was bombarded with a fusillade of thoughts that touched extremities. I usually find myself some time that I spend alone. Usually, the night works to my favor. When everyone’s asleep, I break free on my thoughts. I feel that’s the best time one can bring the best clarity to one’s thought. Today, I got this break while travelling in a BEST bus to my home. Travelling amidst the darkness and minor patches of lights in the woods of the Aarey colony, I was confronted with myriad questions.

Is there any pattern to things in life? This has been subjected to intense deliberation over time, but is still left to debate. To me, the entire universe is systematic as opposed to pure random happenings. The only difference being,  no one knows the frequency at which things get repeated. At best, we can provide a guess as to how things would span out but cannot be sure on that. This is because each smaller pattern is embedded in a larger pattern, which in turn is embedded in still larger pattern. Stock Markets are in vogue again. We all talk about the recovery. Some say it is going to be a V shaped recovery and others are of the opinion that it shall be a W shaped recovery. Trend Analysis does help us quite a bit in this but nothing is devoid of serious shortcomings. What makes it difficult to predict things in the immediate short term is that there are quite a lot of unknown factors in play that affect the outcome. At the best, we can retrospect and find the hidden pattern in things. None of us know what tomorrow would have in store for us, but the larger picture in life is still clear to us. It is a great leveler to ensconce in the cozy confines of office or a friend’s car and be a part of the rushing crowd in Buses. It helps me to experience things without letting go off the reality. I read an article in the Guardian today regarding the sanitary conditions in our country and believe me it was shocking. What then is the purpose of our lives? To live selfishly or to live selflessly? I believe it is better to be selfishly selfless rather than being selflessly selfish. I didn’t find any answers to my questions at the end of the journey but I realized one thing. Just as we go with the fundamentals of a company to determine the expected return over a long term period, we should look at the ultimate aim of our lives to guide our action in each and every moment. Momentary deviations are part of the system and are just corrective measures that are bound to cancel out in the long term.

Hey, I have reached my bus stop. I am back to the chaotic world of randomness but am somehow trying to filter off the noise. In the meantime, I guess that our markets would trade flat for most part of June and thereafter the budget is going to guide the way forward for our nation.