Showing posts with label Randomness. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Randomness. Show all posts

Friday, June 12, 2009

Random Musings

I am penning down a post after an eon. Not that I didn’t want to but just that my fickle self didn’t find me enough motivation to write one. Finally, the jinx was broken. In a short burst of 20 minutes, I was bombarded with a fusillade of thoughts that touched extremities. I usually find myself some time that I spend alone. Usually, the night works to my favor. When everyone’s asleep, I break free on my thoughts. I feel that’s the best time one can bring the best clarity to one’s thought. Today, I got this break while travelling in a BEST bus to my home. Travelling amidst the darkness and minor patches of lights in the woods of the Aarey colony, I was confronted with myriad questions.

Is there any pattern to things in life? This has been subjected to intense deliberation over time, but is still left to debate. To me, the entire universe is systematic as opposed to pure random happenings. The only difference being,  no one knows the frequency at which things get repeated. At best, we can provide a guess as to how things would span out but cannot be sure on that. This is because each smaller pattern is embedded in a larger pattern, which in turn is embedded in still larger pattern. Stock Markets are in vogue again. We all talk about the recovery. Some say it is going to be a V shaped recovery and others are of the opinion that it shall be a W shaped recovery. Trend Analysis does help us quite a bit in this but nothing is devoid of serious shortcomings. What makes it difficult to predict things in the immediate short term is that there are quite a lot of unknown factors in play that affect the outcome. At the best, we can retrospect and find the hidden pattern in things. None of us know what tomorrow would have in store for us, but the larger picture in life is still clear to us. It is a great leveler to ensconce in the cozy confines of office or a friend’s car and be a part of the rushing crowd in Buses. It helps me to experience things without letting go off the reality. I read an article in the Guardian today regarding the sanitary conditions in our country and believe me it was shocking. What then is the purpose of our lives? To live selfishly or to live selflessly? I believe it is better to be selfishly selfless rather than being selflessly selfish. I didn’t find any answers to my questions at the end of the journey but I realized one thing. Just as we go with the fundamentals of a company to determine the expected return over a long term period, we should look at the ultimate aim of our lives to guide our action in each and every moment. Momentary deviations are part of the system and are just corrective measures that are bound to cancel out in the long term.

Hey, I have reached my bus stop. I am back to the chaotic world of randomness but am somehow trying to filter off the noise. In the meantime, I guess that our markets would trade flat for most part of June and thereafter the budget is going to guide the way forward for our nation.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

The Certain Uncertainty

 

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I always used to take my life as a pre-programmed, kind of algorithmic. For I was sure, albeit in a surreal manner, about the certainty of things. It was only before a few days or rather months that I realized the absurdity of certainty. Be it any part of life, right from career to love, we never know what's gonna happen. All the brilliant minds from the world of economics couldn't guess the housing bubble and we still do not know if there are any bubbles building up in US T-bonds or bullion. For, we can only influence the outcome, not decide it. The book, "Fooled by Randomness" authored any Nassim Nicholas Taleb, went a long way in reinforcing this belief in me.

Stop worrying about what would be in store for us tomorrow. Today, is our best bet. Living in the moment, as rightly said by Steve Jobs, would help us better our prospects for tomorrow. We, Humans are a strange species, we are too stupid to learn from history and yet over ambitious to ensconce in our future. Why not, live our life to the full in the present, do all those things that we wanted to, say all that we wanted to, achieve all that we wanted to. The future is unknown to everyone, today is a pedestal that we can build upon each passing day. So, knowing my abilities and my limitations, I really do not know if I would get all that I want. Today, I will be who I want to be so that I prepare myself for Tomorrow.